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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 05/10 11:53
Cattle Futures Trend Lower While Hogs Attempt to Maintain Their Upward Trek
Some light cash cattle trade has been reported Friday with prices trading
steady to $1.00 higher. But more cattle will likely need to sell before the
week's end as the week's total movement has been thin thus far.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Friday's WASDE report wasn't as supportive as either the cattle market or
pork complex would have hoped for, which could negatively impact the markets
later this afternoon or next week. There has been some cash cattle trade
reported Friday morning with Northern sales marked at $295 and Southern live
cattle trading at $184 to $185. June live cattle are up $0.33 at $176.275,
August feeder cattle are down $0.43 at $250.625, June lean hogs are up $1.33 at
$99.05, July corn is up 4 1/2 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is down
$4.40. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 54.90 points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex attempted to trade higher earlier Friday, but with
midday boxed beef prices lower and the WASDE report sharing mixed news, traders
turned the market lower. June live cattle are down $0.57 at $175.35, August
live cattle are down $0.50 at $173.22 and October live cattle are down $0.47 at
$176.52. There's been some light trade reported Friday morning in Nebraska and
Kansas with dressed sales marked at $295, which is steady with last week's
weighted average. Southern live cattle are trading at $184 to $185, which is
steady to $1.00 higher than last week's trade. Feedlot asking prices for cattle
left on showlists remain firm at $186 to $187 in the South and $297 plus in the
North.
Friday's WASDE report shared mixed news for the cattle and beef markets.
Beef production for 2024 was increased as heavier carcass weights and faster
chain speeds are leading to greater production totals. Beef production in 2024
is expected to total 25,595 million pounds -- up 140 million pounds from last
month's report. Projected steer prices fell for the three remaining quarters of
2024. Steer prices in the second quarter are now expected to average $184 (down
$1.00 from last month), third quarter prices are expected to average $182 (down
$2.00 from last month), and fourth quarter prices are expected to average $187
(down $3.00 from last month). 2024 beef imports fell by 4 million pounds, but
exports grew by 13 million pounds as the first quarter of 2024 sold more
product than originally assumed.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $1.19 ($294.20) and select down
$0.85 ($284.91) with a movement of 114 loads (74.05 loads of choice, 15.02
loads of select, zero loads of trim and 24.89 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is locked in on trading lower and the market
simply seems unwilling to look at any other approach at this point. One would
have thought with cash cattle prices trading steady to $1.00 higher the feeder
cattle complex could have turned slightly higher -- especially with the recent
moisture accumulation in parts of the Northwest; but not today. The market is
continuing to trade lower as bearish pressures have consumed the focus this
week. May feeders are down $0.30 at $238.35, August feeders are down $0.32 at
$250.72 and September feeders are down $0.37 at $251.70.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is trading mostly higher into Friday's noon hour as
midday pork cutout values are higher. It's likely next week's market sees
pressure again as Friday's WASDE report shared that demand over the next couple
of months could be less than desired and affect cash prices. June lean hogs are
up $1.20 at $98.92, July lean hogs are up $0.97 at $102.02 and August lean hogs
are up $0.75 at $101.15.
The projected CME Lean Hog Index for 5/9/2024 is up $0.04 at $91.32 and the
actual index for 5/8/2024 is steady at $91.28. Hog prices are lower on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.09 with a weighted average price of
$87.87 on 2,196 head and a five-day rolling average of $91.45. Pork cutouts
total 150.25 loads with 132.40 loads of pork cuts and 17.86 loads of trim. Pork
cutout values: up $1.75, $100.18.
Friday's WASDE report shared disappointing news for the hog and pork markets
in 2024. Pork production in 2024 was decreased by 26 million pounds as greater
processing speeds in the first half of the year are more than offset by the
lighter carcass weights projected in the second half of the year. Pork
production in 2024 is expected to total 28,064 million pounds -- 26 million
pounds less than last month's estimate. Unfortunately, hog prices for the
remaining three quarters of 2024 were lowered as demand in the second half of
the year is expected to be weaker. Hog prices in the second quarter of 2024 are
expected to average $68 (unchanged from last month), third quarter hog prices
are expected to average $71 (down $1.00 from last month), and fourth quarter
hog prices are expected to average $56 (down $1.00 from last month). 2024 pork
imports fell by 2 million pounds from last month, but exports fell by 78
million pounds as demand has weakened.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com
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