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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 05/20 11:40
Higher Corn prices Grab the Feeder Cattle Market's Attention
The livestock complex isn't trading as robustly as it was late last week,
but if consumer demand shines through again this week, traders could have a
change of heart and continue to support the contracts.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
The livestock complex is seeing mixed interest heading into Monday's noon
hour. The cattle complex would like to trade with the same gusto it possessed
last week, but traders want to see followed through support before they eagerly
advance the contracts any higher. July corn is up 8 1/4 cents per bushel and
July soybean meal is up $3.90. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 13.85
points.
LIVE CATTLE:
The live cattle complex is trading mostly higher as the market continues to
rally and thrive on the excellent support in which it came into last week.
Between strong trader interest, higher boxed beef prices and cash cattle sales
that were $2.00 to $5.00 higher than the previous week -- the market had little
to be disappointed in. Thankfully that same positive energy has followed the
complex into this new week and so long as beef demand remains strong -- the
market should have little issue trading higher. June live cattle are up $0.47
at $181.52, August live cattle are down $0.10 at $178.92 and October live
cattle are up $0.27 at $182.22. New showlists appear to be mixed, higher in
Kansas, somewhat lower in Nebraska, and lower in Texas.
Throughout last week Southern live cattle traded at $186 which is $2.00
higher than the previous week's weighted average and Northern dressed cattle
traded at $300 which is $5.00 higher than the previous week's weighted average.
Lat week's negotiated cash cattle trade totaled 93,719 head. Of that 67%
(62,841 head) were committed to the nearby delivery, while the remaining 33%
(30,878 head) were committed to the deferred delivery.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $0.80 ($314.25) and select up $3.95
($301.35) with a movement of 48 loads (27.47 loads of choice, 9.64 loads of
select, zero loads of trim and 10.85 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
Even though last week's market was extremely supportive and propelling for
the feeder cattle complex, feeders are trading mostly lower into Monday's noon
hour as they look for continued support as the market dances around its 100-day
moving average. May feeders are up $0.45 at $247.17, August feeders are down
$0.62 at $259.27 and September feeders are up $0.35 at $260.50. Not helping the
complex is the fact that nearby corn prices are trading $0.07 higher. But if
beef demand remains strong throughout the majority of the week, the market will
likely rekindle its rallying nature.
LEAN HOGS:
The lean hog complex is trading mixed heading into Monday's noon hour as the
market sees modest support for its deferred contracts but continues to see it's
summer 2024 contracts struggle as demand isn't expected to be as strong as had
hoped for. June lean hogs are up $0.12 at $96.62, July lean hogs are down $0.10
at $99.95 and August lean hogs are down $0.37 at $99.10. Packers must have
ample supplies committed to them for this time as last week they vaguely
supported the cash market and as of this morning they show little ambition in
procuring hogs early in the week.
The projected lean hog index is delayed from the source. Hog prices are
unavailable on the Daily Direct Morning Hog Report due to confidentiality.
However, we can see that only 170 head have traded, and that the market's
five-day rolling average now sits at $89.50. Pork cutouts total 236.64 loads
with 193.45 loads of pork cuts and 43.18 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up
$0.22, $100.49.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached at ShayLe.Stewart@dtn.com
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